Alternative energy sources discussed in this web site include solar energy, oil sands, ethanol, biodiesel, wind energy, coal mine methane, geothermal energy, nuclear energy, hybrid cars, LNG, GTL, hydrogen fuel cells, and compressed natural gas. Also included are energy efficiency improvements which I count as alternative energy sources. These energy efficiencies are too important to leave out.
Several publicized alternative energy sources that really have not got off the ground yet are briefly touched on. These are shale oil, tidal & wave energy, fuel cells, and methane hydrates. Several of these sources - if they could be developed - have the potential to provide for our energy needs for centuries......if they could be developed!! Of course, a few years ago, we talked of the potential of the oil sands.....if they could be developed! And now, the oil sands are being rapidly developed (to my surprise)!
So, with the above in mind, I won't again give up on any source of energy....no matter how difficult its development looks!
Categories Of Alternative Energy Sources. The two categories of alternative energy sources are reviewed:
a. Non-renewable energy sources such as natural gas and other fuels made from natural gas, and
b. Renewable sources such as ethanol, biodiesel, solar energy and wind power.
Do We Have A Choice About Alternative Energy? We have no choice but to develop alternative energy sources and to do so rapidly! Otherwise, look out for Peak Oil, global warming and an energy crisis! Also, oil & fuel prices are already soaring and prices are going to get much, much higher as we near the end of our reserves of oil.
Which alternative energy sources are doing well?
Which alternative energy sources are a disappointment?
There has been an improvement in efforts to develop alternative energy sources but it is not nearly enough replace our dwindling oil and natural gas reserves. This is particularly true of the U.S. which consumes the most fossil fuels but where the prevailing opinion among many citizens appears to be that there is no energy crisis in the country that can't be cured by developing the oil deposits of the Arctic Refuge in Alaska or by developing the recent huge conventional oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico. According to this line of reasoning, new alternative energy sources would be nice to have but are not essential.
I don't believe that line of reasoning is correct. Unfortunately, I am being proved right every time I gas up my car.
Gasoline Consumers Have Adjusted to Higher Fuel Prices.
Meantime, the Hummers are humming away and pickup trucks are getting so large that one has trouble seeing over the top of the truck beds. Gasoline and other fuel costs are up over the levels that existed several years ago, but most people have adjusted to higher gasoline prices fairly well.
But what about the really big fuel price increases that will hit in the future?
Out of the public eye, there is obviously a little more awareness of the energy crisis among the nation's leaders as witness the occupation of oil-rich Iraq because of "WMD's" when the more intelligent of citizens knew the major issue was control of the Middle East's vast oil reserves.
When I first wrote about alternative energy sources, I was very discouraged because I envisioned Peak Oil fast approaching, the energy crisis deepening, and little being done to develop alternative energy sources. But, to my surprise, there have been some successes as market forces came into play and, equally important, people around the world became aware of the seriousness of the energy crisis (and related global warming problem) we are facing. These alternative energy success stories are covered herein.
I have had to eat some crow as the U.S. (and the world) has finally begun to grapple with the Peak Oil problem and our innovative political and market system is beginning to come up with (partial) solutions. The effort is not great enough, yet but good things are beginning to happen.
But I digress a little from the subject which is to examine specific alternative energy sources which might be used to replace the fossil fuels - crude oil, natural gas, and coal - presently used to power the country. Two of these fossil fuels - crude oil and natural gas - have about reached the top of their production curves and the third - coal - is more plentiful than oil and natural gas but environmentally unclean with existing technology.
For the purpose of this web page, alternative energy sources are defined as any energy source (and certain non-energy applications) that can replace or reduce the use of conventional crude oil, natural gas, and coal. This is a broad definition but it is helpful in avoiding concentrating on only pristine alternative energy sources, e.g., solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, biomass, etc. We are not going to solve the energy crisis with just solar energy and windmills. Not quickly, anyway!
Another way to define alternative energy sources is to take a quick look at the entire energy spectrum. I break it into three categories:
Crude oil, coal, and natural gas. Crude oil is the most used of the three fuels and we are beginning to run out. When world Peak Oil (maximum production of oil) is reached, prices of the fuel will skyrocket. This is the fuel we must quickly find a substitute for.
Coal is more abundant than crude oil but the atmospheric emissions problems with its use are severe and, therefore, its use is restricted.
Natural gas is a "clean" fuel but the supply is limited although it is more abundant in nature than crude oil. Because of its relative abundance and clean-burning nature, I often treat certain types of natural gas, e.g., LNG, as alternative energy sources (but non-renewable).
Some alternative energy sources fall into this category. LNG, oil sands and nuclear energy are probably the most important of these energy sources.
Certain forms of natural gas - LNG, compressed natural gas, and GTL - are important here. These forms of natural gas or natural gas products have specific advantages when in the liquid or compressed state or when converted to a synthetic liquid fuel.
Natural gas is clean and, as discussed in the above paragraph, some forms of it can actually be considered an alternative energy source in their own right. We will need lots of this clean natural gas to tide us over until the more pristine alternative energy sources kick in. Please keep in mind that, while natural gas can be considered an alternative energy source, it is not a renewable energy source!
Also in this energy category are the oil and tar sands, nuclear energy, and unconventional sources of natural gas such a "tight" formation gas.
I consider these energy sources alternative energy sources since they replace conventional oil, coal and conventional natural gas. They are very important energy sources since they will likely be the "bridge" energy sources that we will have to use until the renewable energy sources are developed.
Coal, while plentiful, is so dirty it should not be listed as an alternative fuel in the foreseeable future.
These are the alternative energy sources that are perpetually renewable. Solar energy, wind power, ethanol, biodiesel, etc. Once developed, these energy sources will supply a near infinite supply of energy........but, in the meantime, we have to have the less exotic energy sources of categories 1 and 2. Otherwise, civilization, as we know it, will be badly hurt.
In accordance with the above definition of alternative energy source, I have included improved energy efficiency as a source. Efficiency improvements could be very important in meeting the energy shortage as the improvements were back in the 70's, 80's and 90's during the past energy crises.
In similar fashion, "psychological acceptance of alternative energy" could also be included as an alternative energy source though virtually impossible to quantify. Don't laugh........fake solar panels are appearing in Japan! That is good! More and more people want to, at least, look as if they are supporting alternative energy. Nothing will help spur alternative energy development more than a change of attitude about the subject.
I apologize for giving such a screwy definition of alternative energy sources, but I think the reader will see the logic in my pragmatic definition. Too many folks want to jump from the fossil fuels to exotic renewable energy in one big step. It can't be done. Windmills can't handle our energy problems at the present time.
It should also be noted that the arrival of Peak Oil - originally predicted by some oil experts to arrive as early as Thanksgiving 2005 - has been delayed for several years, at least. That gives us a little more time to get ready for the Peak Oil event that is sure to come.
However, please note that my own projection is that Peak Oil is arriving now. I don't believe in a sharp peak in the oil production curve. Instead, I think there will be a peak oil production plateau for a few years. Then, the rapid decline!
Several alternative energy sources look great. But some of the sources will need a few years to make a major contribution to replacing oil.
This is one messy way to get oil but it is being done and the output is increasing very rapidly with a number of companies working on recovering oil from oil sands. Lets keep going. We are never going to work the kinks out of the processes unless we work at it. There are enormous deposits of oil sands available. A majority of oil sand reserves are apparently in Western Canada (Athabasca Oil Sands) with smaller deposits of somewhat similar (lower grade) "tar sands" in Venezuela.
It should be noted that additional oil sand deposits are being found in Canada and the total size of the oil sands is immense to say the least. Additionally, I have just learned that there are some significant oil sand deposits in the U.S. under development although these oil sand deposits are, by no means, comparable in size to the deposits in Canada and Venezuela.
Apparently, we are going to be dealing with the oil sands for a very long time. Actually, we don't have a choice at this time.
Mining the oil sands raises a severe environmental problem. Over a year ago, it was reported that just one mining waste pond was 14 miles in circumference and contained over a 100 feet depth of a slow-settling, water-oil-sand-clay mix. Try cleaning up that mess!
In addition to the waste ponds, etc, the effect of the noxious fumes being produced by the oil sand treatment facilities is contributing to the global warming problem. (Of course, we in the U.S. have to keep our mouths shut on the global warming issue. Our government barely recognizes (if at all!) that there is a global warming or climate change problem. Global Warming & Al Gore provides more detailed information)
Still another problem with the oil sands development is that construction and production costs are moving up about as fast as increases in the value of the product obtained. Without tax and royalty subsidies, some environmentalists claim that mining the oil sands would not even be a breakeven project.
Canada is plunging ahead with oil sands development (includes use of government subsidies) without totally solving the environmental problems. Eventually, they will have to face up to the environmental problems and determine if they can afford the environmental damage to their territory. (Note: an incredible amount of domestic and foreign (China, etc.) money is being put into oil sand development and the Canadians are not immune to the influence of this money. But, if they want to see what pell mell development of energy sources can do to the environment, they should visit our once attractive (but oil-rich) wetlands down here in coastal Louisiana - the Louisiana wetlands now look like a war zone.
Despite all the above problems with the oil sands, oil in large quantities is being produced from the deposits and we probably have no choice but to continue with their development.
At least for now!
Eventually, we will have to move from oil-based fuels to exotic fuels such as fuel cells, solar energy, etc. Natural gas is more plentiful than oil so it will undoubtedly have to serve as an interim fuel until the more exotic alternative fuels are developed. Thus, my interest in LNG, compressed natural gas, & GTL.
LNG, technically, might not be considered an alternative energy source since it is really frozen natural gas. However, due to its unique production, shipping characteristics and varied uses, it is considered an alternative source for the purpose of this web site.
LNG is produced simply by cooling natural gas to the liquid form. It is then shipped to the U.S. and elsewhere in cryogenic tankers. When LNG arrives at its destination in the U.S. or elsewhere, the frozen gas is unloaded at a "terminal" (often offshore terminals) where it is heated back to the gaseous form and distributed through conventional natural gas pipelines.
Alan Greenspan and LNG. Alan Greenspan, retired Federal Reserve Chairman. weighed in with some interesting comments about LNG. I was encouraged by his comments, first, that LNG was a needed "safety valve" and later, that "significant global trade in the material has developed." Makes sense to me.
LNG Profitability. LNG imports become profitable at a natural gas price of about $3.50 per thousand cubic feet. This is below the present price (about $9) of natural gas which is temporarily depressed and $3.50 is significantly lower than any prices foreseen for the medium to long-term future. No wonder so many firms are jumping into LNG. These firms include ExxonMobil Corp, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Dominion Resources, Sempra LNG, and McMoRan Exploration.
Canada and Mexico are getting into the LNG action with a sprinkling of LNG terminals, most of which will serve the U.S. with natural gas via pipeline.
Maybe all is not lost with the energy crisis! But it is going to take a large number of LNG terminals actually operating to do the job. Can we do it? Will we do it?
LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) has a more technical discussion on LNG and Alternative Energy Company Stocks provides information on some of the companies engaged in LNG.
LNG is an alternative energy source whose time has come! But will the U.S. take full advantage of the source and develop the infrastructure needed to make full use of LNG.
Recent Development. LNG has been used in specially-designed heavy trucks as a replacement for diesel. Apparently, a small amount (10 % or so) of diesel is mixed with the LNG as a starter fluid. Efficient, pollution-free operation of the trucks is reported.
While the LNG used in the heavy trucks as a replacement for diesel has, so far, been prepared from natural gas produced in this country, I see no reason why the imported LNG discussed previously could not be used for diesel replacement if the market is large enough to justify transportation costs.
It should also be noted that compressed natural gas (CNG) is also used as fuel for vehicles. In this use, the natural gas is not liquefied.
In the Gas-to-Liquid process, natural gas is used to produce a "diesel-like" fuel that is very clean. I was surprised to see that this process was so advanced overseas, particularly in South Africa .
The liquid diesel from the GTL processes is so ultra clean that it can be blended with conventional "unclean" diesel to produce a blended diesel fuel that still meets governmental standards. Most developing nations are implementing new regulations reducing the allowed sulfur content of diesel to extremely low levels. At this time, the most economical way to obtain the low-sulfur diesel is to blend the regular diesel with GTL liquid diesels. The clean diesel market provides a built-in market for the GTL diesel.
GTL diesel will dramatically improve air quality for those countries using it. Much of the pure GTL fuel will no doubt be sold as a specialty fuel for use by cities with air quality problems.
In addition to its high quality in terms of sulfur content, etc, the GTL diesel has a higher Cetane No. than conventional diesel meaning that the fuel is more powerful and more efficient that conventional diesel.
The GTL process is going to have a greater impact in Europe in the immediate future because Europe has gone gung ho over diesel. More diesel is now used for automobiles and trucks than is gasoline. The US is lagging way behind in GTL. But so what! If South African companies help solve the Peak Oil problem by developing such a fine alternative energy source, I won't complain. It should also be noted that an increase in usage of GTL in Europe will mean that more European gasoline will be available for export to the U.S. and this will help alleviate the fuel shortage over here.
In any event, GTL is going to become a major alternative energy source in a few years! LNG and GTL may delay the bad effects of Peak Oil so that we, at least, have a chance of surviving the arrival of Peak Oil.
The news headlines that LNG and, to a lesser extent, GTL, are receiving infers that the processes will use "stranded" natural gas (gas located too remotely to be used conventionally) for the feedstock for the LNG & GTL fuels. However, I predict the markets for the two products will grow to such an extent that the feedstock gas will not be limited to stranded natural gas but will include regular natural gas also. The demand is going to be great!
GTL is a most welcome new alternative energy source.
The acceptance of hybrid cars - equal or better than pristine alternative energy sources - by, at least, some of the public has been a surprise to me. Based on my observations, I formerly saw no hope for a substantial hybrid cars market developing because of their original relatively small size.
Sure, only 300,000 or so of hybrid cars have been sold in the U.S. and there are over 200,000,000 non-hybrid vehicles on American streets and highways. There is a long way to go to replace all these vehicles. But a substantial demand for hybrid cars is there. A very hopeful sign! If we get enough of hybrid cars on the highway, we won't need as many other new alternative energy sources.
Note: One report stated that only the most intelligent of the intelligent folks were buying hybrid cars. That could be a problem when we have to market the hybrid cars to the ma and pa Kettles of the country. Down here in Louisiana, almost all the people are buying are SUVs and oversized pickups. But maybe, they will eventually develop a taste for the hybrid.
The emergence of wind power as a major alternative energy source has been a big (pleasant) surprise to me
Energy from wind is not real big in the U.S., yet (it is growing rapidly, though!), but in Denmark, it is providing 20 % of all the country's energy requirements. In Germany and Spain, wind energy is providing about 7% of energy requirements.
Wind energy devices, e.g., windmills, are certainly close to being a perfect renewable energy source, but have the problem of producing a low-density energy product and, additionally, have some environmental problems, e.g., bird-hazards and appearance. I'm hopeful about the successes, but we will never solve the Peak Oil problem with just windmills. Louisiana is said to be the best state, technically, for windmills but we have a large number of duck and bird hunters in the state. They will resist the windmills. Also, how will windmills stand up to a super hurricane like Hurricane Katrina that struck Louisiana two years ago.
Some experts are now rating wind power as the best of the alternative energy sources (at this time!).
For additional information on a Florida electric utility, FPL, rapidly developing wind power, alternative energy company stocks
is a good source.
Solar Energy is finally starting to really move as as an alternative energy source.
A decade ago, solar energy was going to be our renewable energy source savior. Every one said so! But no cigar! Solar energy had many uses in small and medium applications but large applications had trouble getting started. But, the potential was there and the solar energy industry kept developing the energy source!
A hopeful development with solar energy is that the cost of using solar energy has plummeted in the past few years. If that trend continues, the use of solar energy as an alternative energy source should soar.
I was somewhat of a cynic on solar energy but I have had to eat crow. However, I am glad to eat a little crow when it comes to solar energy because the potential is unlimited. We badly need it.
Detailed discussion of nuclear energy as an alternative energy source is not presented here but nuclear energy is going to play a major role in supplying energy in the future, particularly in power plants. A major problem (other than safety) is that no method of applying nuclear energy to automobiles and other small applications has been developed. Eventually, such a method may be worked out, e.g., battery-operated cars, but, by that time, Peak Oil may have us by the throat.
It should be noted that France obtains the majority of their power supply using nuclear energy. Attention, France-haters - are we going to allow France to eat our lunch in this area?
Nuclear development is also booming in Japan, China and other oil-poor nations. As a result, the price of Uranium is shooting through the roof.
Nuclear power plants are going to become an increasingly important energy source whether we like it or not.
This is not an alternative energy source as some experts would define the term but it fits my above definition. Many energy experts believe, improving energy use efficiency is the most important single thing we can do to combat the energy crisis. I agree!
How We Coped With the Fuel Crisis of 70's. Certainly, making energy efficiency improvements worked well back in the '70s when a severe energy crisis occurred in this country. Remember the gas lines and women and men fist fighting each other for a place in line.
Our engineers jumped into the breach at that time, and, quickly we had more efficient automobiles, home air conditioners, industrial equipment, etc. Energy efficiency didn't solve the energy crisis by itself but it sure helped.
What's Next in Energy Efficiency. Improvement of energy use efficiency is becoming hot again. For example, conventional incandescent light bulbs appear on the way out and are being replaced with Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs). The energy savings are enormous. (This is one energy-saving system that I am implementing at my home...as the regular light bulbs burn out, I replace with an LED!)
Improvement of the electrical distribution system is getting much needed attention. This includes, of course, the proper sizing of transmission lines. The introduction into the electrical distribution system of alternative energy sources such as wind energy, batteries of various sizes, and plug-in hybrid vehicles make it mandatory that transmission lines (input and output lines) are sized properly to handle the alternative energy sources.
In line with the electrical distribution system needs discussed above, a change is needed in how our utilities do business. Now, there is little incentive for a utility to push energy efficiency. If energy efficiency is improved, the utility will actually make less money. Some strong incentive programs are needed and I suppose these programs, unfortunately, will have to come through government regulation.
Some experts have stated that energy efficiency improvements, alone, could be of such a magnitude that energy demand would be so reduced that we could have another oil price bust like we had in the 70's & 90's after the energy improvements of those decades. What a pleasant change that would be but I will believe it when I see it!
One interesting observation made in the excellent altenergystocks.com blog is that economic incentives, alone, may not be enough to get consumers to adopt efficiency-improving new technologies. Consumers want to be seen as being "green" more than they are interested in saving a few bucks. The blog gives the example of fake solar panels being sold in Japan.
So a little psychology may be in order to sell environmental products. Puts a new twist on things! But it makes sense. For example, the cleverly advertised Toyota Prius is still making record sales while other mechanically equal but less well advertised hybrid cars are being pulled off the market.
Other alternative energy sources look fairly good:
Ethanol, a renewable energy source, gets a lot of publicity and nice government subsidies but many experts question whether ethanol is really worthwhile. It seems to require about as much energy to produce as the energy value of the final product. Also, I am always suspicious of an energy source that requires large government subsidies for it to be marketable. (But, government subsidies are not always bad and this could be one of those instances where such subsidies are necessary.)
One problem is appearing from the production of ethanol from corn. The price of corn has shot up and this is a problem for many of the poorer nations that use corn as a basic food commodity. Is it to be ethanol for our SUVs or tortillas for our Mexican neighbors? The corn price and other grain price increases indirectly related to the corn price is also now affecting food prices in the United States.
A potential investor in ethanol stocks should certainly get a handle on the future of corn prices before he invests.
It should be noted, of course, that corn is heavily used to fatten cattle being prepared for slaughter. Although it has been suggested that grass fattening be substituted for corn in the fattening process, this procedure produces less tasty meat and may be difficult to sell to the American people.
Brazil is doing great with producing ethanol from sugar cane but one must remember that you can get three crops of sugar cane per year in Brazil. In the U.S., only one crop per year can be obtained. The U.S. is not Brazil!
Cuba produces a huge amount of sugar cane and, possibly, there is potential to use some of it for ethanol production. Would the U.S. let our political differences with Cuba stand in the way? My home state of Louisiana could also expand its sugar cane production but I fear the adjacent, already deteriorating marshes would suffer.
Processes for producing ethanol from non-edible sources, e.g. corn cobs, grass, citrus fruit wastes,and other agriculture waste,. are being worked on but have not been perfected. The use of such cellulosic sources would certainly expand the potential for the use of ethanol as a fuel.
Production of ethanol (and biodiesel) from pond grown algae is receiving attention. The potential is enormous but many problems must be worked out before the process is economically feasible.
(For late-breaking news on ethanol, see the section at the bottom of this web page. The outlook for ethanol may be even more dismal than the picture I paint here! Revisions to the this ethanol write-up may be necessary!)
So far, most of the biodiesel has been produced from the "normal" seed oils such as soybean oil. Now, the Jatropha plant is being heavily investigated. Its seeds contain 40% oil compared to 18% for soybeans. That is a tremendous advantage but that is only the beginning!
First of all, the Jatropha plant grows fine on arid soils (look out deserts! But there are a lot of deserts around). And second, the plant is inedible so foraging animals are no problem.
One oil giant, British Petroleum, has just invested $160 million with a small firm to develop biodiesel production from Jatropha. And India has led the way with developing Jatropha biodiesel. China is jumping in, also.
Hopefully, the Jatropha plant will be a long-term success producing diesel. But, lets give it a little more time before we have a victory party.
In any event, biodiesel may have more of a long range future than ethanol.
(For late-breaking news on biodiesel, see the section at the bottom of this web page! The future for biodiesel may not have as rosy a future as I have indicated above. Revisions to this biodiesel section may be necessary!)
Recovery of coal bed methane is a fast growing enterprise in this country. However, I have absolutely no experience or detailed knowledge in the recovery of coal bed methane (other than a collection of brochures advising me to get rich quick by buying coal bed methane company stocks) so I can offer little discussion on the subject. Apparently, the potential reserves of coal bed methane are very great and the recovery of coal bed methane will likely prove an important source of natural gas. We should continue to pursue recovery efforts.
A number of articles have appeared recently on geothermal energy development. Geothermal energy is often used in areas, e.g., Iceland, where hot rocks are present fairly close to the surface. One method is to pump water into the rocks, allow the water to heat and then return the steam or water to the surface for use. A major problem is that locations where hot rocks exist close to the surface are not numerous.
One advanced technology which received some recent publicity circulates water only six feet or so below "normal" earth surfaces and then recovers the low-temperature heat available there. This process is apparently very expensive but, possibly, the cost can be reduced over time.
Coal hasn't yet made a major move to become material from which new age fuel for automobiles is produced. There are enormous deposits of coal around the globe including 300 billion tons in the US which has the largest reserves of any nation. The US is known as the Saudi Arabia of coal.
A major problem with coal is that it is not as environmentally friendly as natural gas and several other fuels because its combustion produces an enormous amount of carbon dioxide. But, if we get really desperate, we will have to use more of it and we could ramp up its production fairly quickly, but look out environment!
We must not give up on coal but any fuel produced from coal for mass consumption must be made environmentally clean.
If coal is to lead us out of peak oil (temporarily of course....there is not an unlimited amount of coal), it is likely that chemical engineers will do the honor with some modification of the Fishcher-Tropsch Process. This chemical process is probably the most famous chemical process around at this time. Invented by the oil-poor Germans, they used the process in World War 2 to convert coal to a usable liquid fuel for both land vehicles and aircraft. It worked pretty well for them although allied bombing finally destroyed many of the conversion plants.
The Fischer-Tropsch Process is not limited to use with coal only. It can convert almost any carbon-containing substance to either a liquid or gaseous fuel. But coal is where it has made its name and the U.S. has an awful lot of coal. Hopefully, modifications to the process will reduce its pollution-producing processes and make coal more available in the peak oil fight. It should be noted that the process is under constant modification with new uses for it frequently discovered.
I am disappointed in the lack of progress in developing hydrogen fuel as an energy source. Many experts were so hopeful a few years ago, but economical hydrogen cars are developing much slower than expected. The Bush administration jumped behind hydrogen strongly some time ago, probably too strongly.
But then, what is new about the Bush administration backing the wrong dog in a dogfight!
It should also be noted that hydrogen does play a key role in the Fischer-Tropsch Process discussed above. So hydrogen does have a critical role in the peak oil fight although not yet in some of the exotic roles projected.
Fuel cells using hydrogen may be a major alternative energy source in a few decades, but not now.
I don't hear of any great progress being made in developing oil shale deposits as an energy source although the deposits in the western US are of staggering size. Processes are presently highly inefficient and, environmentally unfriendly. But, we can't give up, there either.
These are classic renewable energy sources but have not caught on although there must be literally thousands of patents on such devices and the seas are full of waves.
These methane hydrates which lie on the ocean floor and in the Arctic tundra contain enough methane to supply mankind with natural gas fuel for eons. But nobody has worked out the technology for recovering them for use as an energy source yet. Will such technology be available in time to help with Peak Oil ? In addition to supplying our fuel needs, the hydrates have been implicated in catastrophic warming events in Earth's history in the distant past. Maybe we should be mining the hydrate deposits in the Arctic before global warming heats the earth a few degrees and sets off a natural chain reaction liberation of the tundra methane that really heats up the Earth. (Am I starting to sound like Al Gore?)
Sir Thomas Gold was a brilliant man, one of the great geniuses, but one of his theories about energy has yet to be proven. He thought that the natural gas we are presently recovering was not of bacterial origin, as geologists presently believe, but that the gas has been in the earth since the birth of the earth and has slowly worked its way close enough to the surface to be recovered via shallow drilling. According to his theory, if we drill deep enough, we will hit an inexhaustible supply of natural gas. This would take care of our energy problems forever.
But, how deep do we have to drill? There have been some rather feeble attempts to test Gold's theory but they have not been unsuccessful. Eventually, we will be able to drill deep enough to test the theory but I don't think we had better count on this hypothetical, very deep gas to solve our energy problems. Still, it is an interesting theory.
Unconventional Natural Gas. Conventional natural gas is easy to recover. Porosity in the formation is high and the natural gas has little resistance as it is brought to the surface. Unfortunately, most conventional natural gas fields in the U.S. have been heavily drilled and production of the conventional natural gas is declining. In short, we are running out of the "easy" gas.
Enter unconventional natural gas! Unconventional natural gas is natural gas contained in tight (nonporous) limestone formations or in tight shale rock formations. In recent years, gas companies have become more adept at producing the tight formations. In the case of tight limestone formations, the formation may be fractured using a frac fluid and then kept open by injection of proppants.
Here again, this unconventional gas probably should not be considered an alternative energy source, but it fits my definition of alternative energy very well. I'll take all this "tight" gas we can get our hands on.
Unconventional Oil - Bakken Formation. The same general argument for natural gas is also true for oil. For example, the Bakken Formation of North Dakota contains a huge quantity of high-quality oil. However the oil is held in a two-mile deep tight formation and special procedures are needed to recover it. One successful method is to drill down vertically to the oil-containing shale formation and then drill horizontally out into the formation. This method works but it is expensive. Several billion barrels of oil are believed to be recoverable at the present +$115 per barrel oil price. As the oil price goes up, more of the oil will be recoverable. The formation could contain a total of 400 to 600 billion barrels of oil. Estimates for final recovery range all over the place...from 1% up to 50%. But you are going to pay a lot for a gallon of gasoline produced from this oil.
Still, you folks working in the Bakken, keep at it! We need every drop of oil you can produce while the development of alternative energy sources is underway. Unconventional oil and gas buy time for the alternative fuel boys. They need it! They got a late start and are going up a few blind alleys!
It should be pointed out that what I now call unconventional oil & natural gas will soon be the "conventional" oil & natural gas as the easy oil & natural gas is largely used up. Then there will be virtually nothing left but the unconventional stuff.
Present attempts to solve the Peak Energy or Energy Crisis seldom mention project management techniques which have been so effective in driving large-scale government projects to success, projects such as the Apollo Moon Program, the Manhattan Atomic Bomb Project, defense programs during World War 2, e.g., Liberty Ship production, airplane production, development, missile programs such as the Minuteman program, and countless construction projects in the private and public arenas.
This nation can accomplish a lot when it is committed and project management techniques are employed. Why aren't we using more project management techniques in the development of alternative energy sources?
I live in a New Orleans suburb and, observing the federal government ineptitude in responding to Hurricane Katrina, does not give me much confidence that the present administration is competent enough to utilize project management techniques in solving the energy crisis, i.e., developing alternative energy sources, rebuilding the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina, fighting terrorism, or any other crisis.
Perhaps the next administration will be more competent and will realize the advantages of a project management approach.
On March 7, 2008, Time's cover story, "The Clean Energy Scam," presented a shocking, pessimistic expose on biofuels. Michael Grunwald was the author of the article.
If the article turns out to have painted the correct picture of the biofuels such as ethanol and bio-diesel, we are in a heap of trouble! I suspected that the ethanol craze was, at least, partly a scam, but I had no idea of the magnitude of the ethanol problems. Additionally, the information presented in the article on bio-diesel was largely new to me. One can only hope that Grunwald exaggerated the problems of bio-fuel development.
Unfortunately, I fear Grunwald is not exaggerating the problem. He appears to be a very competent researcher.
One result of the Time story is that it makes me realize the value of the conventional energy sources - oil, natural gas, & coal - and how we must rely heavily on them for the next few decades until we get the alternative energy systems straightened out. Fortunately, several giant oil fields have recently been discovered which will help us hold off peak oil for a few additional years. These strikes include the Carioca field of offshore Brazil and the Bakken Formation of North Dakota. The Bakken field is actually a fairly old field but was ignored because of the difficulty of recovering the oil. Improved oil drilling techniques have now enabled the recovery of the Bakken oil.
1. Alternative Energy - Solar, Ethanol, Biodiesel, Wind The major renewable alternative energy sources are the subject of this web page.
2. Oil & Energy Crisis. Peak Oil and an energy crisis are not far away. Can we meet the challenge by developing alternative energy sources? If not, then get ready for a major change in your standard of living as Peak Oil arrives! An adequate supply of energy is the key to our entire economic system.
3. Energy Crisis. More on the energy crisis. Will the U.S. ever wake up to the approaching calamity and get serious about developing alternative energy sources?
4. Global Warming & Peak Oil: Double-Headed Threat. The U.S. and the world face the twin threat of global warming & peak oil. Which of the threats should we face first? Despite the soothing voices of President Bush and Rush Limbaugh on the threats, the fate of civilization may depend on the outcome.
5. Oil Company Stocks. Peak Oil is on the way and alternative energy sources are still in the development stage. We will need the conventional energy sources, e.g., fossil fuels such as oil & natural gas, to serve as a "bridge" until adequate alternative energy sources are developed. Consequently, oil company stocks and other energy-related stocks should be good investments.
6. Large Oil Company Stocks. The large oil company stocks appear under-priced considering the huge profits they are producing. And, if you read the linked-to report, above, on the problems of the biofuels, you will see the major oil companies are not about to go out of business anytime soon.
7. Oil & Gas Prices. How high will oil & gas prices go?
Alternative energy sources are being developed at a faster rate as Peak Oil and an energy crisis approach. Alternative energy sources are divided into the categories of non-renewable energy sources, e.g. natural gas and renewable energy sources, e.g. solar energy. Oil sands, LNG, wind power, hybrid cars, solar energy, GTL, ethanol and improved energy usage efficiency are alternative energy sources with the best chances to reduce foreign oil dependency.
Last updated: 05/11/08
E-mail me at: vanc13@cox.net