Iran War With US | Iran War Against Israel








Possible War Between Iran & US or Israel



Iran's controversial relationship with the US and Israel is discussed on this web page.  Will a Iran war with the US or Israel be the next step ?


Iran is the new US target in the Middle East and all signs point to an eventual US - Iran war or even an Israel - Iran war.  A US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is conceivable but probably unlikely in the near future with the Obama administration calling the shots.. 


A full scale Israel - Iran war is also not likely but an Israel attack on nuclear facilities is possible.  In my opinion, such an attack by Israel is doomed to fail. A clash between Israel and Hezbollah could break out at any time but is unlikely to lead to a full scale war involving the US.


What will be the U.S. strategy for dealing with Iran? And does the present Syrian revolution change things?


The strategy for a U.S. - Iran war or an Israel attack on Iran and whether such a war or attack would be successful is covered in this web page.  My reasons for believing a war is not advisable are also discussed.









US - Iran - War


There is rightful concern in the US, Israel,  and other countries about Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability.  An attack  to remove the nuclear threat is justified in some people's opinions.  The problem is:  What and where to attack?  When Israel took out the Iraq nuclear facilities a few decades ago, there were far fewer facilities and Israel knew precisely where they were.  From what I read, this is not the case with Iran and its nuclear facilities.


Iran Nuclear Facilities Larger than Iraq's.  Iran allegedly has a much larger nuclear program going than Iraq ever did and the facilities are scattered in a larger country.  It would take many air strikes to wipe out all of Iran's nuclear equipment.  Despite all their  threats in the matter, Israel does not have the capability to locate, attack, and destroy all Iranian facilities.  Destroying the Iran facilities with air strikes would be a big job for even the much larger US air force to carry out.


So you say, "the US should simply invade Iran, take over the country, locate the nuclear facilities, destroy them, and then get out of Iran before an Iraqi-type insurgency develops."


The above strategy sounds easy on paper but there are some negatives:


There are a few positives to a US - Iran War.

  1. A successful attack could end Iran's nuclear threat.

  2. An attack might provide some political relieve from the recession from which we are still recovering. The American people would no-doubt rally around the flag if a war breaks out.

  3. If an unlikely decision were made to occupy Iran, a vast treasure trove of oil, natural gas, copper, and other raw materials could fall into US hands if we decided to stay there.  Of course, I'm sure our leaders thought similarly about Iraq before initiating war with them (remember "we will be greeted with flowers and candy").   




Iran War: Iran's Probable Responses to an Attack by the US or Israel


If the US invades Iran as part of an attack by the US, a full-scale war will break out.  Casualties on both sides of such a war will be heavy.  The same scenario holds if Israel launches an attack.  Iran and Hezbollah would no-doubt retaliate against Israel with missiles fired from Lebanon and , possibly, from Iran itself.


In the event of a full-scale war with the US,  Iran will likely use their missiles to stop oil shipments from the Persian Gulf.  This would cause a major world economic problem.


On the other hand, an limited air attack by the US on the nuclear facilities would be less unsatisfactory to both sides.  Iran would certainly resist the US attack and try to shoot down US planes entering their air space.  However, a limited US attack is unlikely to set off a major war.  But, as discussed previously, the air attacks are unlikely to completely remove the widely-spread Iran nuclear facilities.


Limited commando-type attacks  by US forces would no-doubt be resisted by Iran but such small attacks would likely not set off a full-scale war.


Casualties on both sides should be low in the event of limited air or commando-type ground attack.  That looks like a winning strategy to me - at least it looked like a winning strategy before the Hezbollah - Israel clash which occurred in 2006.  However, since the strong Hezbollah showing against Israel in 2006 and the demonstration of the effectiveness of Iran's homemade rockets, I now question whether a US attack against Iran will occur in the immediate future.  Iran has showed its missiles and rockets are capable of shutting down tanker traffic from the Persian Gulf and the US needs to keep the Persian Gulf oil flowing. 


In any event, I think President Obama is too peace-loving and intelligent to attack Iran without severe provocation.


I anticipate no attack from Israel, acting alone, under any circumstances.  Israel would be dreaming to think they could handle Iran in a non-nuclear clash without heavy direct US military support.


The only problem with the multiple strategy scenarios presented above is that miscalculations and mistakes could be made and a full-scale war could begin entirely by accident. 



Iran Suspicious of  the U.S. and Israel.


Iran's leaders do not like Israel and have stated that Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth.  They even sometimes deny that the Holocaust ever happened.  If Iran ever gets nuclear weapons, the weapons will be pointed at Israel although I don't believe that they would use the weapons even if a shooting war broke out with Israel.  The Iran leaders may talk a little crazy at times but they are not stupid!  Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons and would use them if they had to.


Iran is also very wary of the US  After all, it was the US (with British support) that instigated the overthrow of the government in 1953 to protect US and British oil interests.  The US and British put Shah Mohammad Reza Pablavi in charge of Iran.  In 1979, the Ayatollah Khomeni threw the Pavlavi government out of the country and took over.  The takeover of the American embassy in Tehran occurred at this time.


No, things have not gone well between the US and Iran! 



Iran Capabilities in a War With the US


Iran or Persia, as the country was formerly known as, has a historical past that was over a thousand years old when the US was born.  The Iranians are a proud people and there is every indication that their present strategy includes an attempt to resurrect the old Persian empire that fought many battles with Alexander the Great.  With oil revenues pouring in and vast deposits of natural gas, copper and other materials to be developed,  and with a substantial part of Iraq likely to fall under their influence, the Persian empire appears on its way back. 



Iran is twice the size of Texas with a population of 70,000,000.  Their GDP is high for a developing nation.  With the abundance of natural resources as discussed above, Iran has an excellent chance of moving up quickly into the ranks of developed nations.  Then, they could assume a true world leadership role for Muslim nations.


Not exactly the strategy the Bush administration had in mind for Iran when they made the country one of the axis of evil!


Defense-wise, Iran has over 1,700,000 men in their active military.  This is an impressive number but remember Saddam's "million man army"?  How many of Iran's soldiers are adequately trained and equipped to fight effectively is a question mark.  However, based on the excellent performance of the Iranian-trained Hezbollah fighters in the Hezbollah - Israel clash of 2006, we should not assume that Iran's troops are of the same poor caliber as the bulk of Saddam's army was.  Saddam didn't believe in squandering too much money on his troops.   He kept the money for himself and his cronies.


Iran has more of an air force than Iraq did but the air force is still insignificant at this time.  The air force has not fully recovered from the ravages of the Ayatollah Khomeni who virtually destroyed the once-proud air force (trained and equipped by the US) with his purges.   Khomeni took irrational actions against the entire military just before Iraq attacked Iran in 1980.  His purges weakened the  military and emboldened Saddam Hussein to attack.


In the Iran-Iraq war, despite the poor condition of the purged  military and despite the tens of billions of dollars of aid poured into Iraq by the US and the Arabian oil-rich kingdoms, Iran was able to eke out a draw in the conflict.


Things have changed for the Iranian military since that war.


A substantial, home-grown rocket and missile fleet is probably the best single weapon that Iran has developed.  In the event of a US-Iran war or Israel-Iran clash, Iran should be able to totally stop oil shipments from leaving the Persian Gulf.  A world energy crisis could soon develop.


No, I don't see an easy US strategy for the developing US - Iran crisis.   I suggest we talk to them.  At one time the US and Iran were allies.



Ahmadinejad, Iran's President


Iran's former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, certainly kept things in the Middle East stirred up with his big mouth.  He stated that Israel should be wiped off the face of the Earth.  Also, he constantly attacked the US verbally.   


In September 2007, Ahmadinejad  traveled to the US to address the U.N.   While in the U.S., he  also made appearances at Columbia University where he was reamed out by university officials and by protest groups, particularly about his statements that Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth.  However, after crawfishing a little, Ahmadinejad seemed to recover well and was able to tell his side of things.  He seemed quick on his feet.


You have to give Ahmadeinejad credit.  He was not afraid of controversy.


  It should be noted that Ahmadeinejad has just been replaced by a more moderate president in the June 2013 election.



Lebanon War:  Hezbollah - Israel


The summer 2006 Hezbollah - Israel clash ended in a cease fire.  I see the US as even a bigger loser in that war than Israel who suffered heavy casualties and loss of military prestige in the war. 


Certainly, Bush & Rice were guilty of egging on Israel in their reaction to the Hezbollah soldier kidnapping incident that instigated the war.  In addition, the US were allegedly rushing their newly developed "bunker busting" bombs to Israel to help the Israelis in their not-as-easy-as-expected fight with Hezbollah.  Since these weapons are close to being weapons of mass destruction, I question that we should be providing the weapons for indiscriminate use in a local war like the Hezbollah - Israel clash was.


Even worse, the US, by committing themselves so solidly on the side of the Israelis, removed themselves from any pretense of a neutral position in the Middle East. 




And the Iranians didn't received even a scratch in the Lebanon affair. 




Web Sites for Iran War


1.  Iraq War Compared to World War 2.    The Iraq and Afghanistan Wars have kept US military forces occupied.  As a result, Iran has been free to act as it sees fit and is rapidly emerging as the major force in the Middle East.


2.  Next WarWill the next American war be with Iran, Syria, North Korea, or Venezuela?,  


3.  Germany in World War 2.  Causes, major events and strategies of World War 2.  Could Germany have won?



Summary of Iran War


The war rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran is escalating and may result in a war involving Iran and Hezbollah against the US and/or Israel..




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Last Updated:      02/04/17