Iran's controversial relationship with the US and Israel is discussed on this web page. Will a Iran war with the US or Israel be the next step ?
Iran is the new US target in the Middle East and all signs point to an eventual US - Iran war or even an Israel - Iran war. A US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is conceivable but probably unlikely in the near future with the Obama administration calling the shots..
A full scale Israel - Iran war is also not likely but an Israel attack on nuclear facilities is possible. In my opinion, such an attack by Israel is doomed to fail. A clash between Israel and Hezbollah could break out at any time but is unlikely to lead to a full scale war involving the US.
What will be the U.S. strategy for dealing with Iran? And does the present Syrian revolution change things?
The strategy for a U.S. - Iran war or an Israel attack on Iran and whether such a war or attack would be successful is covered in this web page. My reasons for believing a war is not advisable are also discussed.
There is rightful concern in the US, Israel, and other countries about Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability. An attack to remove the nuclear threat is justified in some people's opinions. The problem is: What and where to attack? When Israel took out the Iraq nuclear facilities a few decades ago, there were far fewer facilities and Israel knew precisely where they were. From what I read, this is not the case with Iran and its nuclear facilities.
Iran Nuclear Facilities Larger than Iraq's. Iran allegedly has a much larger nuclear program going than Iraq ever did and the facilities are scattered in a larger country. It would take many air strikes to wipe out all of Iran's nuclear equipment. Despite all their threats in the matter, Israel does not have the capability to locate, attack, and destroy all Iranian facilities. Destroying the Iran facilities with air strikes would be a big job for even the much larger US air force to carry out.
So you say, "the US should simply invade Iran, take over the country, locate the nuclear facilities, destroy them, and then get out of Iran before an Iraqi-type insurgency develops."
The above strategy sounds easy on paper but there are some negatives:
A full-scale US - Iran war will require a major military effort on the part of the US But our finest soldiers are still tied down in Afghanistan . Better wait until we finish that war!
US casualties would be high in a full-scale US- Iran war. How long would the American people stand for that?
In retaliation to a US attack, Iran has the rocket/missile capability to stop all oil shipments from leaving the Persian Gulf. That action could quickly set off a world economic panic.
After the Iraq (nonexistent) WMD debacle, a US - Iran war would be treated around the world with protest - even though Iran's nuclear facilities are, theoretically, much more of a danger to the world than Iraq's WMD facilities ever were.
Other Muslim nations, e.g., Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc., might be pulled inadvertently into a US - Iran war. Also, Turkey might use the diversion of a US - Iran war to move into northern Iraq and take action against the Kurds whom they have political problems with (not to mention the nice oil fields in northern Iraq that Turkey badly needs). And don't forget Hezbollah in Lebanon! They would certainly be pulled into any war involving Israel and the tens of thousands of missiles they possess would rain down on Israel.
There are a few positives to a US - Iran War.
A successful attack could end Iran's nuclear threat.
An attack might provide some political relieve from the recession from which we are still recovering. The American people would no-doubt rally around the flag if a war breaks out.
If an unlikely decision were made to occupy Iran, a vast treasure trove of oil, natural gas, copper, and other raw materials could fall into US hands if we decided to stay there. Of course, I'm sure our leaders thought similarly about Iraq before initiating war with them (remember "we will be greeted with flowers and candy").
If the US invades Iran as part of an attack by the US, a full-scale war will
break out. Casualties on both sides of such a war will be heavy. The same
scenario holds if Israel launches an attack. Iran and Hezbollah would no-doubt retaliate against Israel with missiles fired from Lebanon and , possibly, from Iran itself.
In the event of a
full-scale war with the US, Iran will likely use their
missiles to stop oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. This
would cause a major world economic problem.
On the other hand, an limited air attack by the US on the nuclear facilities
would be less unsatisfactory to both sides. Iran would certainly resist
the US attack and try to shoot down US planes entering their air space.
However,
a limited US attack is unlikely to set off a major war. But,
as discussed previously, the air attacks are unlikely to completely remove the
widely-spread Iran nuclear facilities.
Limited commando-type attacks by US forces would no-doubt be resisted
by Iran but such small attacks would likely not set off a full-scale war.
Casualties on both sides should be low in the event of limited air or
commando-type ground
attack. That looks like a winning strategy to me - at least it
looked like a winning strategy
before the Hezbollah - Israel clash which occurred in 2006. However, since the
strong Hezbollah showing against Israel in 2006 and the demonstration of the
effectiveness of Iran's homemade rockets, I now question whether a US attack
against Iran will occur in the immediate future. Iran has showed its
missiles and rockets are capable of shutting down tanker traffic from the
Persian Gulf and the US needs to keep the Persian Gulf oil flowing.
In any event, I think President Obama is too peace-loving and intelligent to
attack Iran without severe provocation.
I anticipate no attack from Israel, acting alone, under any
circumstances. Israel would be dreaming to think they could handle Iran
in a non-nuclear clash without heavy direct US military support.
The only problem with the multiple strategy scenarios presented above is that
miscalculations and mistakes could be made and a full-scale war could begin
entirely by accident.
Iran's leaders do not like Israel and have stated that Israel should be wiped
off the face of the earth. They even sometimes deny that the Holocaust
ever happened. If Iran ever gets nuclear weapons, the weapons will be
pointed at Israel although I don't believe that they would use the weapons
even if a shooting war broke out with Israel.
The Iran leaders may talk a little crazy at times but they are not stupid!
Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons and would use them if they had to.
Iran is also very wary of the US After all, it was the US (with
British support) that instigated the overthrow of the government in 1953
to protect US and British oil interests. The US and British put Shah
Mohammad Reza Pablavi in charge of Iran. In 1979, the Ayatollah Khomeni
threw the Pavlavi government out of the country and took over. The
takeover of the American embassy in Tehran occurred at this time.
No, things have not gone well between the US and Iran!
Iran or Persia, as the country was formerly known as, has a historical past
that was over a thousand years old when the US was born. The Iranians
are a proud people and there is every indication that their present strategy
includes an attempt to resurrect the old Persian empire that fought many
battles with Alexander the Great. With oil revenues pouring in and vast
deposits of natural gas, copper and other materials to be developed, and
with a substantial part of Iraq likely to fall under their
influence, the Persian empire appears on its way back.
Iran is twice the size of Texas with a population of 70,000,000. Their
GDP is high for a developing nation. With the abundance of natural
resources as discussed above, Iran has an excellent chance of moving up quickly
into the ranks of developed nations. Then, they could assume a true world leadership role
for Muslim nations.
Not exactly the strategy the Bush administration had in mind for Iran when
they made the country one of the axis of evil!
Defense-wise, Iran has over 1,700,000 men in their active military. This
is an impressive number but remember Saddam's "million man army"? How many
of Iran's soldiers are adequately trained and equipped to fight effectively is
a question mark. However, based on the excellent performance of the
Iranian-trained Hezbollah fighters in the Hezbollah - Israel clash of 2006, we should not assume that Iran's troops
are of the same poor caliber as the bulk of Saddam's army was. Saddam
didn't believe in squandering too much money on his troops. He
kept the money for himself and his cronies.
Iran has more of an air force than Iraq did but the air force is still
insignificant at this time. The air force has not fully recovered
from the ravages of the Ayatollah Khomeni who virtually destroyed the
once-proud air force (trained and equipped by the US) with his purges. Khomeni took irrational actions against the entire
military just before Iraq attacked Iran in 1980. His purges weakened the
military and emboldened Saddam Hussein to attack.
In the Iran-Iraq war, despite the poor condition of the purged military
and despite the tens of billions of dollars of aid poured into Iraq by the
US and the Arabian oil-rich kingdoms, Iran was able to eke out a draw in the
conflict.
Things have changed for the Iranian military since that war.
A substantial, home-grown rocket and missile fleet is probably the best single weapon
that Iran has developed. In the event of a US-Iran war or Israel-Iran clash, Iran should be able to totally
stop oil shipments from leaving the Persian Gulf. A world energy crisis
could soon develop.
No, I don't see an easy US strategy for the developing US - Iran crisis.
I suggest we talk to them. At one time the US and Iran were allies
Iran Capabilities in a War With the US
Iran's former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, certainly kept things in the Middle East stirred up with his big mouth. He stated that Israel should be wiped off the face of the Earth. Also, he constantly attacked the US verbally.
In September 2007, Ahmadinejad traveled to the US to address the U.N. While in the U.S., he also made appearances at Columbia University where he was reamed out by university officials and by protest groups, particularly about his statements that Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth. However, after crawfishing a little, Ahmadinejad seemed to recover well and was able to tell his side of things. He seemed quick on his feet.
You have to give Ahmadeinejad credit. He was not afraid of controversy.
It should be noted that Ahmadeinejad has just been replaced by a more moderate president in the June 2013 election.
The summer 2006 Hezbollah - Israel clash ended in a cease fire. I see the US as even a bigger loser in that war than Israel who suffered heavy casualties and loss of military prestige in the war.
Certainly, Bush & Rice were guilty of egging on Israel in their reaction to the Hezbollah soldier kidnapping incident that instigated the war. In addition, the US were allegedly rushing their newly developed "bunker busting" bombs to Israel to help the Israelis in their not-as-easy-as-expected fight with Hezbollah. Since these weapons are close to being weapons of mass destruction, I question that we should be providing the weapons for indiscriminate use in a local war like the Hezbollah - Israel clash was.
Even worse, the US, by committing themselves so solidly on the side of the Israelis, removed themselves from any pretense of a neutral position in the Middle East.
And the Iranians didn't received even a scratch in the Lebanon affair.
1. Iraq War Compared to World War 2. The Iraq and Afghanistan Wars have kept US military forces occupied. As a result, Iran has been free to act as it sees fit and is rapidly emerging as the major force in the Middle East.
2. Next War. Will the next American war be with Iran, Syria, North Korea, or Venezuela?,
3. Germany in World War 2. Causes, major events and strategies of World War 2. Could Germany have won?
The war rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran is escalating and may result in a war involving Iran and Hezbollah against the US and/or Israel..
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Last Updated: 02/04/17